What are the Odds of Opening a Knife in CS2?

What are the Odds of Opening a Knife in CS2?

You probably shouldn’t open CS2 cases. There is a massive house edge, and 99% of the time, you are going to lose money…

But if you are going to open cases regardless of our advice, you might as well know the odds of what you are opening. Thanks to the release of Counter-Strike in China in 2017, we now know the odds of opening different skins due to the Chinese government requiring Perfect World(the Chinese CS2 client) to publicize the odds. This short guide will explain the odds of opening each grade of skin in Counter-Strike, from Mil-Spec to Exceedingly Rare(knives and gloves).

Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92% (roughly 4/5)

Mil-Spec grade skins, more commonly referred to as “blues” are the most common type of skin to open. Statistically, 4 out of every 5 cases you open will result in a blue. If you do any better than that, you have already beat the odds!

Restricted Purple): 15.98% (roughly 1 in 6)

Restricted skins, also known as “purples” are about five times rarer than Mil-Spec skins. If you were to open 50 cases, you would likely get around 8 purples alongside 40 blues. If you want to beat the odds, you dont want to beat them by unboxing purples, because lots of restricted skins aren’t even worth more than the combined cost of the case and key

Classified (Pink): 3.2% (roughly 1 in 32)

Now we are getting to the much rarer types of skins. Classified or “pink” skins are almost 27 times rarer than blue skins, and if you open one in less than 32 cases, you are officially lucky. Pink skins are usually at least money-back on the cost of the case and key, though some can be a lot less or more.

Covert (Red): 0.64% (roughly 1 in 156)

We have made it to the below 1% range, so opening one of these is extremely lucky, unless you have opened more than 156 cases without getting one. Covert/red skins are usually pretty pricey, and can sometimes be more than the cost of a cheap knife! What you don’t want to get is a StatTrak red, because that is more than 4 times rarer than a knife!

Exceedingly Rare (Gold): 0.26% (roughly 1 in 385)

You may have heard stories about people getting knives on their first-ever case in CS2, but you may be surprised to learn that on average, it takes nearly 400 cases to open a knife or gloves. Some players open thousands of cases and never get a “gold”, so if you want a knife, your best bet is to buy it from a marketplace like BitSkins, where you can find prices up to 40% cheaper than the Steam Community Market.

How Rare are StatTrak Items?

StatTrak items are exactly 10 times rarer than their corresponding non-StatTrak items. For example, the odds of opening a StatTrak knife is 0.026%, or one in 3850, while your chances of opening a StatTrak blue skin is roughly 7.99%, or roughly 1 in 13.


If seeing how terrible the odds of opening good items are from a CS2 case wasn’t enough to deter you from unboxing cases, we hope this warning will be. CS2 cases are nothing but a gateway into gambling addiction, and if you choose to unbox them, you are bound to lose money, no matter how lucky you feel you are.