Winter is Coming!
If you are involved in the CS:GO investment scene, you are likely aware that from capsules to cases, prices are plummeting across the market. For investors holding bulk amounts of cases, capsules, and stickers, this can be particularly concerning but fear not. Several predictable factors have contributed to this drop in prices. Today, we will cover some of these factors and give insight into how/when the market will recover. More importantly, we will shed some light on the positive results that can come from these lower prices.
Since the dawn of CS:GO skins, there has been a known phenomenon that some lovingly call the “winter crash.” This phenomenon occurs every winter, and as more people spend time away from the game to celebrate the holidays and spend time with family and friends. Less people playing means less cases and skins dropped in game, less people buying and opening cases, and more. During this period, interest in the market dwindles for a period of about a month, and the market begins to slow. For the past couple years, the absolute rock bottom of prices has fallen around the beginning of December, and they begin to rise again as the New Year approaches.
An Operation is (hopefully) Near
When an operation arrives to CS:GO, the market undergoes some big changes as player counts skyrocket and new skins are added. When an operation comes, more players are in-game, eagerly hoping to complete missions, level up their operation coin, and unlock rewards. Because of this, more skins are being created and more cases are being dropped every second, and as the volume of skins and cases increase, their prices go down. Along with this, when a new operation arrives and individuals like the new skins and case, they are eager to sell older cases sitting in their inventory in hopes of purchasing some of the new ones. The last CS:GO operation started 14 months ago in September 2021, and ended 9 months ago in February of 2022. Since August of this year, players, skin enthusiasts, and investors have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of the operation, excited for new content. However, Valve has failed to fulfill their expectations, leaving players more and more eager. Now, the community widely accepts that a new operation could arrive any minute, causing prices to begin dropping as people prepare for the operation crash. Many investors have even sold certain investments in hopes to buy them back cheaper during the crash.
Rio Major Sale
Since the Rio 2022 Major concluded two weeks ago, prices of capsules, particularly the more recent Antwerp and Stockholm capsules, have plummeted by margins of over 35% in some extreme examples. Short term investors are selling off their Antwerp and Stockholm investments for marginal profit(or even loss) in hopes that they will strike it big with Rio. When Rio 2022 capsules go on a 75% sale in the near future, they will be bought in significant amounts by said investors. Since the Major ended, these investors have been selling off their investments in mass amounts to prepare to buy up large amounts of Rio capsules. These rushed mass sellings from shorter term investors has caused prices to plummet, and they will continue to do so until the Rio Major sale ends.
The Bright Side
While all of this information may be disheartening for investors, it is important to note that this is not permanent. The CS:GO market largely depends on the availability( or lack) of new and interesting in-game content, which makes the market volatile, but at the same time, somewhat predictable. This crash will likely end as the Operation comes to a close and spring arrives, so refraining from panic selling will prove profitable for long term investors. For those who aren’t invested into the scene and want to be, this crash is a huge positive, as it is one of the best times to buy investments like cases and capsules(do not take this as investment advice, these predictions are purely based on market history).
We hope that by absorbing this blog post, you gained some insight as to the causes of the ongoing market crash. We particularly hope we were able to relieve the fears of some investors concerned about dropping prices.
Thanks for reading!