Opening Souvenir Packages is one of the worst things you can do in CS2. They have terrible odds, horrendous return on investment stats, and most importantly, by the time you unbox a good skin from a Souvenir Package, you could have bought it from BitSkins for a lot less than you spent on buying packages.
With that being said, if you choose to ignore our warning and open souvenir packages instead, we can at least provide you with some statistics so you know how bad the odds really are.
This short guide dives into the odds of opening each rarity from a Souvenir Package in CS2, from High Grade(papers) to Extraordinary(golds).
Consumer Grade (Grey): 80% (4 in 5)
When you open Souvenir Packages, it is guaranteed that the majority of the items you get will be Consumer Grade. Even if you are lucky at the beginning, if you continue to open, the volume of your unboxed items will slowly be filled with greys. Due to their extreme commonness, Consumer Grades are often some of the cheapest skins in the game.
Industrial Grade (Light Blue): 16% (1 in 6)
Unboxing an Industrial Grade skin is 5 times rarer than unboxing a Consumer Grade skin, but don’t get too excited, because almost every Industrial Grade skin is still extremely cheap, and most likely a loss of money. If you combine Consumer and Industrial Grade odds, you can see that you have a 96% chance to lose almost all of your money when opening Souvenir Packages.
Mil-Spec (Dark Blue): 3.2% (1 in 31)
If you remember from our article about CS2 case odds, you may remember that the odds of opening a Mil-Spec are 80%. However, in Souvenir Packages, these odds are lowered drastically to 3.2%, and though dark blues from Souvenir Packages are worth more than blues from cases, they are still barely profitable most of the time.
Restricted (Purple): 0.64% (1 in 156)
The odds of getting a purple from a Souvenir Package is the same as opening a gold sticker from a CS2 capsule, and if you have ever opened stickers from capsules, you know how rare it is. Purples are usually worth a lot more than the cost of the case, but unless you open just a few packages or multiple purples, you are still going to lose money overall.
Classified (Pink): 0.128% (1 in 781)
If you thought Restricted skins were rare, take a look at Classified grade skins, which are 5 times rarer, and more than 2 times rarer than the odds of opening a knife in CS2. Pinks are usually worth a lot thanks to their trade-up value(they can be used to trade up to expensive Coverts), but unless you are opening nearly 800 Souvenir Packages, which will run you several thousands of dollars, you probably won't be getting one of these.
Covert (Red): 0.0256% (1 in 3906)
Finally, we have made it to the crown jewel: the one type of item that people hunt for when they open Souvenir Packages. Coverts are extremely expensive, often costing thousands of dollars, but to open one of these, you would have to spend a minimum of around $5000 just to get one, and you might not even get one after spending that much. To put it into perspective, the odds of opening a red from a CS2 Souvenir Package are more than 10x the odds of getting a knife from a CS2 case, and more than 25x the odds of getting a gold from a capsule in CS2.